Economy and finance

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". 

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

July 2027 Meeting

June 2027 Meeting

April 2027 Meeting

March 2027 Meeting

January 2027 Meeting

December 2026 Meeting

March Meeting

April Meeting

January Meeting

September 2026 Meeting

October 2026 Meeting

June Meeting

July Meeting

Fed rate cut by...?

English

Portuguese

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting161,8 US$vol.50%Yes50No50

June 2027 Meeting32,3 US$vol.31%Yes31No69

April 2027 Meeting164,4 US$vol.28%Yes28.5No71.5

March 2027 Meeting7,1 mil US$vol.10%Yes9.5No90.5

January 2027 Meeting10,7 mil US$vol.3%Yes3No97

December 2026 Meeting472,1 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.45No99.6

Detalles del mercado

Plazos y pago